The winter hard-court tennis season is winding down with two big tournaments on tap. The “Sunshine Double” is upon us with the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells in the California desert set to run from March 6th-March 19th immediately followed by the Miami Open set for March 20th-April 2nd. Both are ATP Masters 1000 tournaments, meaning it is a mandatory commitment for the world’s top players provided they are healthy enough to play. The winner receives ATP 1000 rankings points, hence the name. These are the first of nine ATP 1000 Masters events in 2023.

Each will open with a 96-player field, with the 32 seeds getting first-round byes. The top 75 players in the world are required to play, with other spots going to qualifiers and wild card entries.

Expect all the top names in the field, with a couple of exceptions. Rafa Nadal has been out injured since the Australian Open and has already withdrawn from both tournaments. US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz, now the world’s second-ranked player, has battled injuries all season and just withdrew from Acapulco with a hamstring strain, so consider him iffy as well for either one.

Several Americans are playing well thus far in 2023 and figure to make strong contenders in both. Expect odds up for BNP Paribas by the end of the week at WynnBET and the other books. For tennis fans who also love wagering there is the opportunity of using the WynnBET Promo Code for new customers. Bet $100 and receive $100 in bonus offers.

Here are the top four US players expected to join both fields. Sebastian Korda, the 26th-ranked player, has withdrawn from Indian Wells with a right wrist injury.

Taylor Fritz ATP #5

The top-ranked American is also the defending champ at Indian Wells, winning the BNP Paribas final 6-3, 7-6(5) over Nadal in 2022. That marked the first time an American won here since Andre Agassi all the way back in 2001. Fritz also took his most recent tournament, the Delray Beach Open, and has six career titles to his name.

Fritz has really picked up his game on hard courts in the past year on the way to a career-best 5th ranking. He banks on his serve as Fritz’s 13.5% Ace% ranks 8th on the tour on hard courts in the past 52 weeks, and his 87.6% Hold% ranks 10th.

On the flip side, Fritz is vulnerable against big serves as he does not grade out as well on returns. His 37% Percentage of Return Points Won (RPW%) on hard courts in the past year ranks 22nd and his 21.8% Break% sits 23rd. Roll it all up and Fritz’ has a Dominance Ratio of 1.18 (DR, % of return points won divided by % of service points lost). That ranks sixth on hard courts.

Expect to see the 25-year-old Fritz with among the shortest odds in the field, pending his draw of course.

Frances Tiafoe ATP #15

Tiafoe exploded on the tennis map with a stirring run to the semifinals at last year’s US Open. He won the United Cup in Australia earlier this year over a relatively weak field but has not had particular success since. Taifoe lost in the third round of the Australian Open to 18th-seeded Karen Khachanov, then fell in the second round of the Dallas Open.

Hard courts are his best surface overall, though oddly four of his six career titles have come on other surfaces, He’s won 66.4% of his service points with an 85.3% Hold% and an excellent 12.2% Ace% in the past year on hard courts. His return game does not rank so high with a 36% RPW% and just a 20.1% Brk%. His DR of 1.07 ranks just 24th.

Tiafoe has not fared well at the BNP Paribas, carrying a 4-6 record overall and topping out with a 3rd-round finish in 2021. He likes the Miami sunshine much better, however, getting to the 4th round in his first four appearances than the third round in 2022 with a 14-6 combined mark.

Tommy Paul ATP #23

Paul is playing the best overall tennis of his career, reaching the semis of the Australian Open where he fell 7-5 6-1 6-2 to Novak Djokovic, the eventual champ. He peaked at 18th ranking before dropping a shade to his current 23rd.

Paul has five career titles, four of which came on hard courts though none since winning in Stockholm late in the 2021 season. He has gone 30-16 on hard courts in the past year. Unlike Fritz, his sometimes doubles partner, Paul relies on his return game with a 39.3% hard court RPW% that ranks eighth, leading to a night ranked 25.5% Brk%. When he’s serving however he wins 65.1% of his points with just a 6.3% Ace%. His 1.13 DR on hard courts ranks 12th.

In 2022, Paul took down 3rd-seeded Alexander Zverev at Indian Wells before losing to 29th-seeded Alex de Minaur. He fell in the 3rd round of the Miami Open to Fritz.

Maxime Cressy ATP #36

The big-serving Cressy has had a very mixed start to 2023. On the encouraging side, he beat 10th ranked Holger Rune on the way to the finals in Montpelier. Unfortunately, he has not made it past the second round in his other five tournaments in 2023, including a loss to Rune at the Australian Open.

Cressy has blasted 19.8% of his serves for aces on hard courts in the past 52 weeks, a mark bested only by John Isner. His 89.3% Hold% ranks 6th. Unfortunately like Isner, Cressy has a relatively poor return game, with a 28.8% RPW% and 11.4% Break%. He also has not fared well at either Indian Wells or Miami, winning just one of his four combined matches. He will be an extreme long shot at both tournaments.